NVIDIA, Run, Don't Walk, From x86

Even though NVIDIA has been trumpeting for a year now that the era of the GPU is upon us, the fact of the matter is that everything you'd ever call a computer or a computer-like device needs a CPU. And they don't have one while both of their competitors do.

Problem? NVIDIA says no, of course. But it is. It's a big problem, and that's played out pretty hugely over the past year.

No matter what NVIDIA does while they are dependent on someone's CPU platform, they're at a disadvantage. They don't have the muscle, financial or otherwise, to grow the GPU market faster or bigger than the CPU market, and in the mean time they are going to have to continue to deal with 1) legal woes over even being able to compete at all (as in chipsets), or 2) with alleged "anti-competitive" practices stunting their ability to sell product that is legal (as in ION).

Further, the high-end gaming market that used to be NVIDIA's bread and butter is all but gone. Gone are the days of the $1500 worth of GPU's in system, a victim of the console-centrism of the games industry, the depressed economy, and AMD's onslaught in mid-range of the market. In fact, the discrete GPU business as a whole isn't what it used to be for NVIDIA, so, regardless of what NVIDIA has to say about GPU vs. CPU, the fact is that they they don't own the GPU market anyway.

There is no light at the end of the tunnel here, so I say an exit to more promising markets is in order. If NVIDIA isn't going to get into bed with AMD, they need to get to dive in headfirst-bet-the-company-style with ARM. x86, although a massive market, is not the only game in town, and the only way to truly fight Intel is to get out from under their shadow completely. Fight x86 from the bottom up!

I've been talking about the "digital divergence" for a while. In a nutshell, it means that computers will be freaking everywhere, and you'll probably use those "other" computers more than your main PC. They are in your TV, in your printer, your phone, your Zune, and probably will be wired into your eyeball before long. The market is already huge and is continuing to grow at breakneck spead now that smartphones/MID's/netbooks are taking over and Windows is irrelevant. And ARM is the driver for this stuff because it's so tiny and cheap and power efficient. It's a completely different animal from x86, and NVIDIA is the type of company that can make ARM a real contender with some real graphics technology. That's the opportunity, the door is open.

There is this fantastic book that, if you haven't read, you should: "Good to Great", by Jim Collins. Two of the chapters are focused around "Disciplined Thought" in the mind of the people in the driver seat of companies that aspire to be "great". It's defined as "confronting the brutal facts" about your business' position or situation, and having the ability to find a focus that is based around the simple, targeted thing that you can become the best in the world at.

For NVIDIA, that thing does not include x86.